In a recently published report in June 2023, the World Maritime University studies and presents 10 trends influencing global commercial shipping.
According to the Transport 2040 – Impact of Technology on Seafarers – The Future of Work Report, identifying global trends within the maritime industry is critically important since such knowledge helps stakeholders select trend relevant technologies.
A Road Map is different from Road Mapping. Road Mapping is the whole process of the review (SLR), whereas the Road Map is that final and broad picture of the future, which consists of technologies integration over time horizon.
The 10 trends identified in the report are as follows:
2.1 TREND ONE: ECONOMIC/INCREASING E-COMMERCE AND DIGITAL CONSUMPTION. Consumption patterns are constantly changing. The need for intermediaries between producers and consumers is narrowing due to e-marketing, e-stores and e-platforms. As a consequence, shopping behaviors are shifting towards specialized channels that employ sophisticated targeting strategies, such as demographic categorizations using search engine optimization, social media marketing and media marketing where the statistics provided by these channels are used to promote and understand consumer culture.
2.2 TREND TWO: ECONOMIC/EXPANDING ROLE OF THE BLUE ECONOMY. The United Nations Blue Economy Concept Paper (2021) defines the Blue Economy as an initiative developed by Small Island Developing States (SIDS). This concept paper is potentially also of interest to coastal states and countries with concerns regarding waters beyond national jurisdiction as well as nations that see the oceans as development spaces that require a planning process for conservation, sustainability, bioprospecting, energy production and maritime transport. Under the Blue Economy scheme, the main activities are fisheries; aquaculture; tourism (in coastal and marine areas); extractive offshore industries within and beyond national jurisdictions; freshwater generation; renewable energy offshore production; maritime transport, port, shipbuilding, shipping and other related services; and water disposal and other supportive services in the maritime field. Climate change and renewable energies are important topics of this trend.
2.3 TREND THREE: ECONOMIC/RISE OF NEW BUSINESS MODELS AND ECOSYSTEMS DRIVEN BY TECHNOLOGY. The digital transformation of business models will no doubt further change how the organizations interact and hence the business ecosystem as a whole. The technologies currently driving change include blockchain, AI-applications, the Internet of Things (IoT), digital supply chains and logistics management. These developments require businesses to deal with cybersecurity, 6G technologies and smart contracts.
2.4 TREND FOUR: ENVIRONMENTAL/EXPANDING GREEN ECONOMY. Green economy trends seek to mitigate climate change and reduce the world’s negative externalities by restructuring the world economy in support of such goals. Negative externalities include carbon emissions, pollution, wildlife endangerment, global warming, ocean coral bleaching, and intense tropical cyclone activities. In this context, in 2011, during the United Nations Climate Change Conference in South Africa, 194 participating countries agreed to set up a fund to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions after 2020. The path to establishing a low-carbon economy requires the reduction of fossil fuel-based energy consumption, implementing renewable energy sources, and where possible, embracing a zero-waste approach in production processes.
2.5 TREND FIVE: POLITICAL/INCREASED GEOPOLITICAL VOLATILITY. International developments within the economic and diplomatic fields are influenced by a number of factors, including: uncertainties; rivalries; shocks, such as political tensions; macroeconomic shocks; terrorist attacks; access to energy and natural resources; and global pandemics. Changes in political administration and diplomatic issues between nations may affect the prices of goods, oil and gas, commodities, and even the stability of different regions, which can cause disruption to the international system. Forecasting geopolitical events and their risks is inherently impossible, which is why risk-hedging and management protocols are widely adopted to prepare countries for fluctuations in the financial and trade markets. Recent global geopolitical disruptions have included Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine/Russia crisis. Future disruptions may emerge owing to factors such as the price of petroleum and commodities, new pandemics, the use of cryptocurrencies, wars and terror attacks.
2.6 TREND SIX: POLITICAL/INCREASING ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY REGULATION AND GOVERNANCE. Advancement of technology has created the need for proper governance to ensure more efficient processes, and to deal with ensuing challenges. Defining standards for technology within the governance area is a complex process where topics such as diplomacy and science at local, national, transnational, and global levels must be codified on a regulatory framework. This undertaking befalls governments and international organizations. With increased use of Information Communication Technology in business and private lives of citizens, new regulations on the use of this technology by all stakeholders involved are being developed and enacted by governments, including application of risk management tools, and the common ground rule. But the trend towards further data regulation protection and information-sharing on the Internet poses the risk of evolving into methods to control political dissidence and curb civil freedoms.
2.7 TREND SEVEN: SOCIAL/WIDENING ECONOMIC AND SKILLS INEQUALITIES. The socioeconomic differences between the members of a society are generally rooted in their skills level in relation to labour market needs and requirements. A general lack of skills training in a society may contribute to the intransigence of a given socioeconomic system. This dynamic is not set to change in the near future where highly-skilled individuals will continue to earn higher wages than individuals with medium and low-skilled profiles, who will also continue to struggle to gain sufficient education to change their economic standing. Moreover, in a world where digital skills are ever-more important and where the lack of such skills will become a significant determinant in the widening of inequality, adequate access to the Internet will be instrumental to change. Countries that invest in technology for educational purposes are therefore more likely to reduce both economic and skill inequalities. The same is true of investment in e-learning platforms and in children’s lifelong learning and in family stability. The trend towards supporting skills-learning and personal opportunity through digitalization is especially important within maritime transport where addressing inequality will require the reskilling of seafarers and other employees as well as investment in assistive technologies, such as broadband Internet.
2.8 TREND EIGHT: TECHNOLOGY/INCREASING CONCERNS ABOUT AND SOLUTIONS FOR CYBERSECURITY AND DIGITAL TRANSPARENCY. Cybersecurity has become a growing concern for industries due to the increase of digitalization (IoT, blockchain, Cloud, ICT) and the associated cyber threats. Threats to cybersecurity may affect the stability, safety, and security of nations, which is why individual states and stakeholders are developing preventative strategies within different industry spheres, including air freight and maritime transport, which are not only susceptible to being attacked physically but also experience cyberattacks. Countries have therefore increased their awareness of cybersecurity not only in relation to their national security and defense policies but also in relation to technology, including global navigation satellites systems, automatic identification systems, satellite communications, IoT, digital and smart contracts, etc. In support of this trend, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted Resolution MSC.428/98 regarding Maritime Cyber Risk Management in Safety Management Systems, which requires shipowners to address cyber risks and cybersecurity attacks in the design and deployment of Safety Management Systems (SMS). In January 2021, it became mandatory to deploy SMS and to consider cyber risks as potential threats.
2.9 TREND NINE: TECHNOLOGY/INCREASED USE OF SMART SHIPS. Motivated by smart shifts within other interconnected industries and sectors, the use of smart and digital ships is currently expanding and will grow even further with the wider utilization of technologies such as AI, digitalization, machine learning and mature semantic and cognitive technologies. The future ship will be smarter; data-driven; greener due to flexible powering options; and offer full onboard WiFi and digital connections through global satellites and mobile communications. Such ships will also integrate with the wider global fleet as well as shore-side supply chains to enable Big Data Analytics, thereby providing information on a wide range of issues, including operations and maintenance costs, the reliability of the vessel, logistics, life cycle designs, energy consumption, emissions levels, and cargo monitoring. Smart ships will also offer gains within efficiency and ease of transport, which is why stakeholders are likely invest more in such ships.
2.10 TREND TEN: TECHNOLOGY/RISING IMPORTANCE OF AUTONOMOUS SHIPS. Automation is set to gain momentum, driven by sophisticated sensors, software, machine and deep learning, and global communication links. Ships will become situationally aware, self-governing and capable of doing tasks with limited external intervention (i.e., become autonomous). Currently, a wide variety of global projects have been established to build MASS prototypes. Countries such as Norway, Finland, Korea, Japan, and China are investing in autonomous ship projects due to the importance of their shipyard industries, which ultimately will increase their influence in the maritime field. Technology is being advanced by MASS projects, particularly within AI-enabled autonomous navigation and remote control. Developing a fully autonomous oceangoing vessel will take time. However, stakeholders may eventually consider investing in this full-scale transition due to the anticipated economic, environmental and operational benefits the technologies promise, although there are several inhibitors, such as safety and technical issues and social awareness of the potential negative consequences to employment. Overall, it is anticipated that onboard and onshore seafarers (i.e., e-farers or operators) would need to be reskilled and upskilled to adapt to MASS.
Access the full report here: https://commons.wmu.se/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1091&context=lib_reports