It would be best to assume that the U.S. would not respond immediately and militarily … A David armed with a sling shot poised to hurl stones at Goliath is a Biblical lore.
The presence of an alarmingly big number of Chinese ships, as many as 250+, of which 40 were spotted on 21-March-2021 anchored at Juan Felipe Reef or Whitson Reef of the Kalayaan Island Group, 240 kms west of Palawan, well within the 200-nautical mile or 370-km Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) waters (as ruled by the 2016 Hague Arbitration Tribunal) prompted the Philippine government to file a diplomatic protest against China.
PRRD called for a meeting with the Chinese Ambassador at Malacañang for an explanation. The Chinese Ambassador said the ships sought shelter from a storm at Julian Reef and that the seas surrounding the reef have been traditional fishing grounds of Chinese fishermen. Its Manila Embassy added that the reef has been part of Nasha Islands, the Spratly Islands which China claims belong to them. China denied the anchored ships were from their militia fleet.
How could a large number of fishing boats, big and small, be assembled on a daring commercial venture in an open sea, on territories and sea areas on WPS claimed by ASEAN states and Taiwan, 1000 kms away from the southernmost province of China?
Surely, there must be an organization with authority to direct, control and supervise their movements in the open seas, provide logistics, and security.
It was a massive display of maritime dominance and control of vital sea lanes, areas and islets with strategic security significance and aimed to ensure their rich mineral and fishing resources be availed of exclusively for the Chinese people.
According to authorities, the ships are part of the fishing fleet of the Peoples Armed Forces Militia funded by the government and its mission is to project China’s claimed sovereignty over certain areas in the vast China Sea and East China Sea.
Before the deployment of the ships, China’s top admirals must have assessed very thoroughly this massive undertaking –the timing, sea environment, possible threats, how formidable, where to anchor, and what would most likely happen. They were provided with armed escorts with deep, long logistics for a contest of endurance.
As to timing, the entire world has been facing a pandemic. The Philippines is undergoing one of the worst. To China’s anger and consternation, it has been blamed for the plague. To its credit, it was one of the first biggest producers of the vaccine and the first to supply RP, topping it with a donation 400,000 doses. Filipinos are grateful to generous patrons, and typically beholden to persons with wealth and/or power. How could you not be? China has provided credit, invested worth hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars for the country’s roads and bridges and other projects, and has given us military vehicles and weapons.
Surprisingly, it was timed with the assumption into office of a new U.S. President who is facing domestic problems –the pandemic, immigration, hate diatribes against Asians, differences with NATO, trade conflicts with allies and China, and North Korea’s test of an intermediate range missiles.
China has prudently selected sea areas too far away from the homeland of the U.S., an influential and dominant power on this part of the world. Notably chosen was an area that has had overlapping claims by Taiwan and the weak states of ASEAN, a regional block known more for its yearly reunions and issuing tone downed press releases that are not displeasing to China.
Last year, on two occasions, two U.S. Navy carrier strike forces, an armada of two nuclear powered aircraft carriers, on board with two hundred fighter and attack planes, destroyers and frigates armed with anti-air and anti-ship missiles, submarines, and various ships sailed the sea lanes of South China Sea –a demonstration of U.S. might and resolve, an exercise of freedom of navigation on international waters.
Indubitably, China’s response this year was to send to a disputed area in WPS a large fleet of fishing ships on a declared peaceful commercial venture. It was an awesome display of maritime power with high propaganda value and business acumen. The ships would bring back cargoes of tons of fish and other sea products for both the Chinese and world markets.
Prior to sending these ships, Chinese top officials must have assessed thoroughly how the U.S., and her longtime defense partner, the Philippines, would likely respond.
It would be a mistake to presume that if a Philippine Navy ship, an aircraft, a camp or base is attacked, the U.S. would immediately respond. Under the RP-US Mutual Defense Treaty, the U.S. Congress would deliberate the matter, get a concurrence, and provide a budget. It is not automatic or self-effecting like that provided by the NATO Treaty.
But how about the U.S. War Powers Act? Will the U.S. invoke it as she did in Iraq in 1991 and 2002, Afghanistan in 2011, air attack in Kosovo in 1991, Libya in 2011, air strikes in Kosovo in 2017, and the drone attack that killed an Iranian general in Iraq in 2020? Can we assume that? The U.S. had its own reasons and motives for upholding its strategic interests in these countries. The obvious reality –U.S. enemies in these states have not had the capabilities to hit back on the territory of the U.S., except to employ terror tactics.
It would be best to assume that U.S. would not respond militarily and immediately to protect RP’s disputes against China over islets and reefs in waters of the South China Sea, too far away from America’s homeland.
Many Americans do not even know where the Philippines is. The U.S. senators and congressmen will use magnifying glasses to find the disputed islets and reefs on WPS on the map.
If you recall the October 1962 Cuban nuclear missile crisis, the blunt and brusque Premier Nikita Khrushchev of USSR then, now a lone Russia, tried to test the resolve of a new U.S. President John Kennedy, a young man at 45. Khrushchev had missile launchers erected on Cuban soil aimed at the eastern part of the U.S.. He used it as a bargaining chip so the U.S. would remove its missiles from Turkey that were directed at the Soviet state. Undaunted, President Kennedy declared a national emergency warning that an attack from Cuba on U.S. territory would be met with massive nuclear retaliation on Soviet cities and military targets, and forthwith sent nuclear armed B52s to forward bases with activated missile launchers. The U.S. Navy blockaded the Cuban sea and turned back Soviet ships carrying missiles. For the first time, the world watched in horror as the two most powerful nuclear powers prepared to go to war. Premier Khrushchev backed off in exchange for a U.S. pledge not to invade Cuba and to remove its missiles from Turkey. (As a young Lieutenant and bachelor, I was slated in December 1962 for a one-year course in a southern state close to Florida. It was postponed to the next year.)
The U.S. immediately responded vehemently to USSR’s placement of missile launchers in Cuba that posed an imminent threat and danger to the American people. Cuba is located south of Florida separated by a strait only 90 kms wide.
Let us recall certain episodes in the past to illustrate my point further.
On 5-August-1964, two U.S. Navy destroyers, the Maddox and Turner Joy were attacked by North Vietnamese torpedo boats at the Gulf of Tonkin, Vietnam. In haste, two days later, on 7-August-1964, the U.S. Congress passed the Tonkin Resolution which authorized President Lyndon Johnson “to take up necessary measures to repel an attack on the armed forces of the U.S. and prevent aggression.”
It was the beginning of a major U.S. deep and long involvement in the conflict between communist North Vietnam and democratic South Vietnam. Only to end a decade later, in 1975, in a disengagement –a withdrawal– leaving some 40,000 Americans dead and 50,000 wounded. US involvement has seared the hearts and divided the American people. It was a traumatic experience, a quagmire, a quick sand.
It shall not happen again!
On 26-March-2010, a South Korean corvette sank after it was attacked by torpedoes launched from a submarine off the coast of North Korea killing 46 and wounding 56 South Korean sailors. North Korea denied they did it. However, an International Commission that investigated the incident pointed to North Korea as the perpetrator.
On 23-November-2010, North Korea fired artillery shells on Yeonpyeong, an island close to the border separating the warring neighbors, killing a number of South Korean soldiers. A record of 37 skirmishes have happened between the two belligerent states.
There is no record that the U.S. intervened militarily on South Korea’s behalf after these incidents despite the existence of a US-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty signed in 1951, one year after the Korean War started. The substance of the treaty is the same as that of the RP-US MDT, the U.S. would repel the attacks in line with its constitutional processes. Take note, South Korea has been providing support for the continued stay of 38,000 American soldiers and their families. The agreed support for 2021 is US$930 million.
In 2011, a U.S. Navy aircraft overflew China’s airspace off Hainan island, south of China. A Chinese fighter jet gave chase and collided with the aircraft, killing the pilot chaser. The U.S. plane was forced to land on a Chinese airfield; its eleven crewmembers were held. After 11 days of diplomatic back channeling and compensation agreements, the U.S. plane and crew were released.
In January 1974, Chinese and Vietnamese ships skirmished over Vietnamese-occupied islets in the Paracel islands. As expected, the Chinese navy, superior in number and weaponry, outbattled the Vietnamese ships. Chinese marines invaded the islets, overcame the hapless defenders who suffered hundreds of casualties. The islets are now China’ s outposts for drilling oil and natural gas.
In March 1988, Chinese and Vietnamese ships fought for possession of Johnson Reef in the Spratly Islands 230 kms west of Palawan. The Chinese outbattled the Vietnamese, forcibly occupying Johnson Reef, Fiery Cross and other reefs killing 64 defenders. China has reclaimed the sea off Fiery Cross, transformed it into a 370-hectare island, and built a 3000-meter runway as well as radar structures.
In 1994, China occupied Mischief Reef (Panganiban Reef) 250 kms west of Palawan. The Philippines filed a diplomatic protest but chose not to send the Navy, learning from the Vietnamese experience in 1974 and 1988. (Take note the RP-US MBA was abrogated by the Senate in 1991). China reclaimed the sea surrounding the reef and transformed it into a 555-hectare island, built a 2,700-meter runway with other structures on which long range and big commercial planes could land. Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines claimed the Reef but the Hague Arbitration Tribunal ruled on 2016 Mischief Reef was part of Philippine EEZ since in its natural condition, it would rise at low tide and lay submerged during high tide.
The sending of gray painted ships of the Philippine Navy to patrol the seas off Julian Felipe Reef could have conveyed a military response and an aggressive stance to the presence of an enormous number of declared Chinese fishing vessels
For this reason, DND Secretary Delfin Lorenzana asked for white painted ships of the Philippine Coast Guard and Bureau Fisheries and Aquatic Resources to join the patrol to tone down its military character.
The internationally accepted functions of Coast Guard are to provide safety and rescue at sea, protect the sea and coastal environment and guard the country’s maritime zone. The mission of BFAR is to develop, conserve and protect fisheries and aquatic resources. Their non-military functions may be inferred by their being under the Department of Transportation and Department of Agriculture, respectively.
A retired Admiral, however, confided to me that the ships of the Coast Guard and BFAR would have difficulty sailing the strong and rough waves of the WPS.
He further advised the navy ships and aircraft on patrol stay at a safe distance, avoid a maneuver and action that may be misinterpreted as hostile and establish radio contact with the Chinese ships. (Three Chinese fast attack crafts armed with anti-ship missiles capable of speeds of 70 kph were spotted on Panganiban (Mischief Reef) where a runway and other structures were built.)
Our few ships and aircrafts on patrol facing a large over-whelming number of ships, much bigger in size, superior in capabilities and escorted by fast attack craft armed with anti-ship and anti-air missiles was a clear and candid act of courage and boldness. It was a demonstration of exemplary bravery by our personnel. The repeated and well-published blunt statement by DND Secretary Lorenzana for the Chinese vessels to leave conveyed a direct and defiant position of the government. It was an expression of a strong legal assertion of “sovereignty and jurisdiction ” over Philippine territories, islets, reefs (Julian Felipe, Panganiban, Kagitingan, and Zamora) all over the KaIayaan Island Group and sea areas, and the “peaceful exercise of sovereign rights” of its government on its EEZ.
To date, as of the end of April, the Chinese vessels have hauled about 50,000 tons of fish valued at Php3.5 billion according to BFAR.
A David armed with a sling shot poised to hurl stones at Goliath is a Biblical story.
History has taught us that misreading and miscalculating the adversary leading to missteps have led kings, emperors, heads of state and rulers to go to war and inexorably brought defeat, destruction and dishonor to their country and people.
About the Author:
Brig Gen Manuel P Oxales AFP (Ret) was with GHQ AFP Staff for Plans and International Relations, and a Wing Commander in Southern Mindanao. A Golden Aviator Awardee, he had several articles on external defense, security and advocacy issues published in magazines for professionals. He wrote three books: Advocacy in Retirement, which was officially designated reference of the National Defense College of the Philippines, Public Safety College and the AFP Educational, Training and Doctrine Command (AFPETDC), and the Offices of Senators Gregorio Honasan and Antonio Trillanes III; Advocacy Through the Years, a reference of the AFPETDC; and Two Stories of the February 1986 Revolution, which was made into a two-hour telemovie in 1987 starred by top movie actors. He has an MBA from U.P. and an MNSA from the National Defense College (Distinguished Graduate). He completed the National Security Management program at the US Industrial College. He was a lecturer at the Graduate School of Business, University of the Philippines, Ateneo de Manila University, and NDCP. You may reach him at: maningoxales@yahoo.com